All at once — or spread out?
Inheritance, severance, bonus: this compares both paths and gives you the number that actually matters — how weak the market may be at most during the entry phase for waiting to pay off.
A deterministic comparison of your assumptions — no probability statement and no market forecast.
Lump sum ends up ahead by €2,116.86.
The staggered entry only wins if prices move by less than 2% per year during those 12 months.
Lump sum
€135,373.04
Staggered
€133,256.18
Break-even price move
2%
| After the entry phase: lump sum | €52,500.00 |
|---|---|
| After the entry phase: staggered | €51,679.05 |
| Interest on waiting cash | €543.31 |
| Difference at the end | €2,116.86 |
No randomness involved: the price move during the entry phase is your input, everything else follows from it.
What does this mean for your real wealth?
The calculation above compares both routes with a fixed return. How your real contributions have developed, Planafolio shows from your imported portfolio – as a return per year (XIRR) across all buys, for free.
Check lump sum vs savings plan in a financial planWhat does the result mean?
The result shows whether investing at once or entering step by step leads to more final wealth in the model – and at what market development this reverses.
Model assumptions
- During the entry phase your assumed market development applies, and cash not yet invested earns the savings-account rate (untaxed). After that, both paths earn the same return.
- The return stays constant for the whole period. Real markets fluctuate; losing years are not part of the model.
- Taxes on returns (German flat tax, advance lump sum) are not deducted.
- Fund costs, order fees and spreads are not deducted.
- All amounts are nominal. Purchasing power falls with inflation, which the result does not reflect.
How the calculator works
With a staggered entry, an equal part is invested each month while the rest earns interest in a savings account. After the entry phase, both paths earn the same long-term return.
More on the methodologyWorked example
Example: invest now or phase in gradually?
The calculator's default values above: a larger amount is either invested at once or in equal monthly instalments; the waiting money sits in a savings account in the meantime.
Inputs
- Available amount€50,000
- Phase-in period12 months
- Annual price change during the phase-in (assumption)5%
- Annual return afterwards (assumption)7%
- Annual savings account rate2%
- Investment horizon15 years
Calculation
| Lump sum after the phase-in period | €52,500 |
|---|---|
| Phased in, after the phase-in period (with savings interest) | €51,679 |
| Of which savings account interest | €543 |
Result
| Final value, lump sum | €135,373 |
|---|---|
| Final value, phased in | €133,256 |
| Difference at the end | €2,117 |
The lump sum is ahead because the waiting money misses the price rise. Phasing in would only have paid off if prices had moved less than 2% per year during the phase-in.
Price change (5%) and return (7%) are assumptions, the same defaults as in the calculator above. Nobody knows in advance how prices will move during the phase-in.
Common mistakes
Treating market moves during entry as known
Nobody knows them in advance. The calculator shows what your assumption produces and the break-even move at which waiting pays off. The decision remains a bet on the market.
Treating the cash account as tax-free
Money not yet invested earns interest without tax in the model. In reality interest is subject to flat-rate tax (26.375% including solidarity surcharge) unless the saver's allowance covers it.
Not considering fees per purchase
Costs are not deducted. With many small purchases, per-order fees can matter; with a single order they do not.
Sources and status
Content reviewed on September 29, 2026. The sources are official German legal texts and data and are therefore in German.
- § 20 EStG – Einkünfte aus Kapitalvermögen (im Rechner nicht versteuert)
- Statistisches Bundesamt – Verbraucherpreisindex für Deutschland
The calculation is a simplified model under the stated assumptions and is not investment or tax advice.
What can I do?
Nobody knows the market development during the entry phase in advance. The break-even development shows how weak the market would have to be for waiting to pay off in the model.
What this is really about
The question is not return, it is regret
Both paths have a clear profile — and a clear price.
Historically the lump sum usually came out ahead
A Vanguard study (2012; US, UK, Australia) found that investing a lump sum immediately beat spreading it over 12 months in about two thirds of the periods examined. The reason: money that waits is not invested while markets rise. The calculator shows this effect as soon as you assume rising prices — if prices fall, phasing in can do better.
Staggering buys calm
Seeing a 20% drop right after investing everything can make people sell at the worst moment. A staggered entry gives up some expected return and lowers precisely that risk.
The break-even makes it testable
Instead of arguing about forecasts, the calculator states the price move below which waiting would have paid off. Because of the interest on waiting cash, that threshold is usually above zero. You can hold that number against your own view.
Frequently asked
Planning your entry
Investing a fixed amount regularly buys more shares when prices are low and fewer when they are high, which lowers the average price paid compared to buying a fixed number of shares. With a lump sum already in hand this is not an advantage though — it is only the flip side of part of the money not being invested yet.
If you go for a staggered entry, 6 to 12 months is common. The longer the period, the longer part of the money sits uninvested — in rising markets the return given up grows accordingly.
It is the reason the break-even is not at zero. If cash pays 2% and the market rises by less than 2% during the entry phase, the staggered path wins — exactly the point the calculator identifies.
A common compromise is investing half immediately and spreading the other half over a few months. Set the amount in the calculator to half to look at both building blocks separately.
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